Title
Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-19-2020
Abstract
We explore the asymmetric high-frequency daily response of U.S. equities to financial uncertainty over the 1936–2016 period. We find positive growth of uncertainty reduces stock returns and increases volatility, while, a negative growth of uncertainty primarily reduces variance. More importantly, the impact of uncertainty on volatility is found to be asymmetric. We also model rolling window estimation and find significant time variation in the impact of uncertainty, though the direction largely confirms with the static case. Our study provides new evidence that the response of U.S. equities to uncertainty is intuitively consistent even in the historical and high-frequency context.
DOI
10.1080/13504851.2019.1677846
Publication Title
Applied Economics Letters
Volume Number
27
Issue Number
16
First Page
1305
Last Page
1311
ISSN
13504851
Recommended Citation
Gupta, Rangan; Marfatia, Hardik; and Olson, Eric, "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data" (2020). Economics Faculty Publications. 52.
https://neiudc.neiu.edu/econ-pub/52